“The Effect of China’s Political Relations on her International Trade”

Simon C. Fan, Lingnan University

China's growing influence on the world has had profound effects on the political and economic decisions of her partner countries. This paper demonstrates that regardless of the severity of the conflict (displeasure at meetings with the Dalai Lama; saber-rattling over disputed territory), political relations affect trade between China and her partners. Warmer relations lead to larger increases (or smaller decreases) in trade while cooler relations have the opposite effect. This finding is robust to estimation methods (pair-specific VARs; a SUR system).